By 2060, the rates of dementia in the United States are expected to double to a million new cases per year, according to a new study. Dementia involves progressive declines in concentration, judgment, and memory.
In the past, studies underestimated the risk of Americans getting dementia because of insufficient tracking of early-stage dementia, unreliable documentation of the illness, and underreporting of dementia among racial minority groups.
Racial minority groups are extremely vulnerable to dementia. Among white Americans, dementia rates are projected to double by 2060, but they are expected to triple among Black Americans.
The risk is also greater among women, mostly because they live longer than men on average, and people with specific versions of the gene APOE4.
The gene is thought to be the biggest genetic risk factor in developing late-onset Alzheimer’s. Between 45 and 60 percent of people have versions of the APOE4 gene.
“Our study results forecast a dramatic rise in the burden from dementia in the United States over the coming decades, with one in two Americans expected to experience cognitive difficulties after age 55,” said Dr. Josef Coresh, the senior investigator of the study and the founding director of Optimal Aging Institute at NYU Langone.
“The pending population boom in dementia cases pose significant challenges for health policymakers, in particular, who must refocus their efforts on strategies to minimize the severity of dementia cases, as well as plans to provide more health care services for those with dementia.”
In the study, a team of scientists from NYU Langone and Johns Hopkins used data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Neurocognitive Study (ARIC-NCS) and the U.S. Census Bureau to come up with estimates of dementia risk in the American population over a lifetime.
More than 300,000 ARIC-NS participants developed dementia between 1987 and 2020. According to the scientists, this equated to an overall lifetime dementia risk of 42 percent among middle-aged Americans. The risk was 35 percent in men and 48 percent in women.
Sign up for Chip Chick’s newsletter and get stories like this delivered to your inbox.
Anyone who reached the age of 75 had an over 50 percent risk of developing dementia. The results come out to about a half million diagnosed cases of dementia this year, rising to a million new cases in 2060.
The rise in the number of cases is directly linked to the aging U.S. population. Aside from aging and genetic factors, a high risk of dementia is also tied to obesity, diabetes, hypertension, unhealthy diets, lack of exercise, and poor mental health.
The above estimates don’t have to come true. They can be prevented if effective policies to improve heart, brain, and metabolic health are implemented.
More resources to address racial inequalities in health care would be beneficial in helping to slow cognitive decline and reduce the risk of dementia. In Black communities, health policies should strive to improve childhood education and nutrition.
The study was published in Nature Medicine.